January 2015 Preview

January is the premiere month for Melee on the calendar: it has produced 13 tourneys of 100+ entrants all-time, tied for best out of any month, including a 300+ entrant tourney in four of the past five years. This year promises to be the biggest January ever, already boasting a Melee tourney of 200+ entrants, 300+ entrants, and 500+ entrants through the current online registration totals of some of the tourneys below.

Last month, Forte 2 was the highest-attended tourney, gathering an incredible 227 Melee entrants into Texas to compete with the likes of Javi and Wobbles. In Toronto, The Come Up also made headlines, creating Canada’s unprecedented third straight weekend with a 100+ entrant tourney. Elsewhere, several Apex 2015 World Circuit events shined with big turnouts, including SSS and Pacific Northwest Regional.

January 3

SWEET Prologue takes place this weekend, a two-day tourney in Ann Arbor, MI that represents the Apex 2015 World Circuit event for the Midwest. Although the close proximity to New Years has limited the number of out-of-region attendees in play, the Midwest is showing up in large numbers as usual, with an impressive 202 entrants at the end of online registration. Top names confirmed include KirbyKaze, Chillin, Drephen, Frootloop, Hanky Panky, Kalamazhu, and Duck, who will face off against fellow Samus main HugS coming in from SoCal. With no top-20 players in attendance, this turnout is reminiscent of the first Big House in which nearly a half-dozen players all stood a legitimate chance to take the tourney, potentially making for an exciting Sunday bracket. Prediction: 202 entrants (registration closed).

January 10

BEAST 5 takes place this weekend, representing the Apex 2015 World Circuit event for Europe. Tournament organizer Lolex has stated from the beginning that his goal was to shatter the previous European Melee record of 231 entrants, all the way back in 2008 with Epita Smash Arena. BEAST 5 has done just that, with a whopping 300 unique attendees confirmed through online pre-registration as of New Years Eve. Perhaps an underrated contributing element here is the support of Armada, who has gone out of his way to promote the event, even making a last-minute play vying for Mango’s attendance. Having the top players on your side brings credibility to the table and boosts tourney numbers significantly. This has been the perfect storm of hype (Apex 2015 World Circuit status), tournament hunger (no European supermajors since RoF 3), and community growth (regionals almost every month in the area) for the scene in Sweden to explode for a record-breaking turnout. Prediction: 320 entrants.

Kumite in Tennessee XV also takes place this weekend. It’s difficult to gauge turnout for this one because Tennessee is a relative newcomer to the national Smash stage; it certainly hasn’t come close to hosting a Smash major before. The TOs were smart to bring VGBootCamp on board this year, giving the event instant recognition and a platform on which they can invest for the future. VGBootCamp is a dominant part of the national Melee calendar, and rightfully so considering GimR’s stellar track record and growing starpower, having been recently announced as the main livestream for Apex 2015. With his help, KiT could be a force in the future, but they’ll have to prove it first. Prediction: 90 entrants.

January 17

Paragon 2015, an Apex 2015 World Circuit event, takes place this weekend in the quickly-growing region of Florida Melee. Top players confirmed include Armada and Leffen, both making the trip to America two weeks early ahead of Apex, as well as Mew2King, Hungrybox, Lucky, HugS, MacD, Plup, and Colbol. Despite the number of heavy hitters attending, this tourney currently lacks the sheer attendance volume of other regionals, with a modest total of pre-registrants at the end of the online registration period. Yes, as crazy as it may sound, 120 pre-registrants will be considered modest in 2015. Either Smashers procrastinated big time on registering this time, or we’re unlikely to see many tourney-day registrants since the venue fee goes to $60 at-the-door. Prediction: 150 entrants.

January 24

SWEET 17 takes place this weekend. The Michigan Melee scene continues to thrive in the aftermath of a record-breaking TBH4 (570 entrants) in October and an excellent statewide turnout at Big Beach House (130 entrants) last month. SWEET is the long-running interuniversity tournament series that alternates between the University of Michigan and Michigan State University each spring, invoking a statewide interest similar to what “The Melee Games” has done for New England recently. Adding to the mix is Armada, who plans to attend this tourney as the bridge between Paragon and Apex 2015 during his multi-week stay in the states. Prediction: 110 entrants.

January 31

Apex 2015 takes place this weekend. Apex is the largest Smash-centric tournament of the year, and its evolution from a Brawl-focused event to an all-Smash marathon has been very interesting to observe. Melee has grabbed the headlines the past few years, growing in entrants from 220 to 320 to 330 to 620 in the past four installments. With the addition of Smash 4 and the subtraction of Project M, this year’s Apex looks to be the most interesting turnout composition yet. An early registration pattern that emerged in November (60 Melee, 33 Smash Wii U, 8 Brawl, 4 SSB64) has continued almost spot-on through six full weeks of online pre-registration, and history suggests that even the earliest entrants ratio data for a multi-game event like Apex tends to hold steady. The lack of Project M will no doubt hurt the overall turnout this year, but the extent of the damage is hard to quantify without much data precedent; Apex staff has chosen instead to invest in the future with Smash 4 and Nintendo ties, having grown big enough to discuss that relationship moving forward. All in all, this should be a huge statement from the Melee community, which is on pace to nearly double the Smash 4 Wii U turnout at the biggest overall Smash event of the year. Anyone who doubted the continued strength of Melee in the face of Smash 4’s release is looking foolish now. 500 entrants are currently confirmed for Melee, and a couple precious weeks remain for online registration. I could be way off on this one, but my best guess right now… Prediction: 900 entrants.

See you next month.

MIOM | Juggleguy