Apex 2015 World Circuit Update and Projections (1/12/15)

13 circuit events down, 1 to go. Things have gotten VERY interesting heading into our final circuit event. Time for another update on the Apex 2015 World Circuit standings as of 1/12/15.

As a reminder to all, the top 16 players in these standings will automatically advance into the final top-48 Melee Singles bracket at Apex 2015, skipping over the first two rounds of pools entirely. This is an amazing benefit and should serve as a great incentive for players to work for Apex points in the final few circuit events.

So who’s gonna make it, and who’s gonna be left out?

Let’s go over the points system first:

Points System

1st = 500 points
2nd = 350 points
3rd = 260 points
4th = 210 points
5th = 160 points
7th = 130 points
9th = 100 points
13th = 80 points
17th = 60 points

Here are the current points accumulated:

Current Standings

Here are the remaining circuit events and my projections for who will get how many points at each of them:

Projected Standings

Here are my predictions for who will make it and who will be left out:

Juggleguy’s Predictions

Analysis:

Armada locked up a spot in the top 16 with his 2nd-place performance at BEAST 5.

Leffen entered the fray with an awesome 1st-place finish at BEAST 5, amassing a cool 500 points in the process.

In a strange twist to the drama, Hax stated this past week that it’s still possible he could enter Apex despite previously announcing an indefinite hiatus due to injury. What will he do?! For the sake of our discussion, let’s assume Hax is in good health and is able to enter Apex after all.

Based on the projected top player attendance at the last circuit event, Paragon, I’ve projected that 520 points is the magic number that gets someone in; anything more than 520 points would almost certainly be enough. Notice that I listed what each player needs to do to reach 520+ points in the table above.

Virtually guaranteed:

Mew2King, Hungrybox, Lucky, Westballz, Armada, KirbyKaze, HugS, DJ Nintendo, SFAT, and Silent Wolf are all virtually guaranteed a top 16 spot already.

Last five in:

Leffen, Axe, Wizzrobe, Duck, DizzKidBoogie. Leffen’s dominant 1st-place performance at BEAST ensures that he will need just 17th place or better at Paragon to get in. That’s a walk in the park for him. Axe is basically in the same position, having confirmed for Paragon and needing just 17th place or better to get in. Wizzrobe is still likely to get in, also needing a 17th place finish, but he is a slightly riskier pick due to potential of getting upset by someone in the stacked Paragon field. Duck remains in a decent position to get in having already accumulated 520 points; with Armada, Mew2King, Hungrybox, Leffen, Axe, Westballz, Lucky, Plup, SFAT, MacD, HugS, Cactuar, etc. in attendance at Paragon, it will be extremely difficult for contenders such as Colbol, Shroomed, and Zhu to break into the top placings and earn the points they need to pass Duck. Players currently on the bubble will benefit from the fact that so many already-qualified players will take up space in the top placings at Paragon. DizzKidBoogie is my last pick to make it in, having confirmed for Paragon and needing 17th place or better to get in, but this could actually be tough for him considering the incredibly stacked attendance.

First five out:

Shippu, Shroomed, Colbol, Fiction, Zhu. Shippu has the unfortunate distinction of being on the bubble at 500 points without an accessible way to attend Paragon, as he lives in Japan, and he needs a lot of help at Paragon in order to get in. Shippu must hope for at least four of these things to happen at Paragon: Wizzrobe fails to break top 24, DizzKidBoogie fails to break top 24, Shroomed fails to break top 8, Colbol fails to break top 6, Zhu fails to break top 6, Hax ends up dropping from Apex. In that case, it would leave one last spot for Shippu to sneak in with 500 points. Colbol is still in a very shaky situation, needing 5th place at Paragon against a lineup of opponents featuring six players ranked ahead of him according to SSBMRank. Shroomed and Zhu are both attending Paragon thanks to a last-minute registration, but they will need 7th place and 5th place respectively to get in. This would be fairly straightforward for them at most events, but the Paragon attendance is so strong that I don’t project them to get there. Fiction doesn’t appear to be attending Paragon, so will end at 480 points just shy of qualifying.

Tiebreaker scenarios according to Apex staff, if players have the same number of points at the end of the circuit:

1. Number of circuit events entered (fewer is better)
2. Head-to-head result during any circuit event
3. Highest placing at any circuit event
4. Highest-quality win at any circuit event

Paragon could be a collision course to 520 points between several players, which brings up some interesting tiebreaker scenarios. If Colbol gets 5th and Shroomed gets 7th, we would have a three-way tie between Colbol, Shroomed, and Duck at 520 points. In this case, Duck would get in over the other two, due to having the lowest number of circuit events entered. Shroomed would likely win the fourth tiebreaker over Colbol thanks to his high-quality win over Mew2King at PNR last month; that is, unless Colbol beats Shroomed head-to-head at Paragon, which would give Colbol the nod in the second tiebreaker. Others that could potentially land at 520 points include MacD (if he finishes 5th) and and Zhu (if he finishes 5th). In this case, Duck would still win the first tiebreaker over everyone else due to having the lowest number of circuit events entered, and Shroomed would presumably win the third tiebreaker over the others due to his win over Mew2King at PNR; of the other three, Colbol-MacD-Zhu, Colbol and Zhu would have priority from the third tiebreaker having placed highest (3rd) at any other circuit event, unless MacD beats one of them head-to-head at Paragon to take the second tiebreaker. And if Colbol and Zhu both get 5th, they would both be tied in points and potentially all four subsequent tiebreakers; this would result in a one-set playoff to determine who gets in.

Wow, that is a lot to digest. Let’s hope it isn’t this complicated after Paragon! Or maybe let’s hope it is, because you have to admit, tiebreakers are epic.

Still in contention:

Mango, MacD, S2J, Fly Amanita, Chillindude. Mango got bopped for 3rd place at BEAST, which puts him at 260 points now, but he could get enough points if he were to enter Paragon and get 3rd or better; his attendance is unlikely though. MacD needs an amazing performance of 5th place or better at Paragon to get in, which will be nearly impossible with 11 better players (according to SSBMRank) in attendance competing against him; I project him to get 9th or worse. S2J hasn’t expressed interest in Paragon, and will likely sit on 420 points after his lowly 5th-place finish at the hands of OXY_Sung at SSS 30. Fly Amanita and Chillindude are both skilled enough to conceivably make a run for 4th place at Paragon, and both have enough current points that 4th place would push them in, but it’d be a long shot and neither has expressed interest in attending anyway. PPMD is out of contention, as even a surprise appearance and win at Paragon would only put him at 500 points. Nobody else has a realistic chance based on the current points situation and the skill level required to achieve enough points at the final circuit event.

What do you think? Who’s gonna make it, and who’s gonna be left out? Discuss here or in the MIOM Facebook group! And for more information about the Apex World Circuit, visit the Apex website.

MIOM | Juggleguy