Apex 2015 World Circuit Update and Projections (1/7/15)

12 circuit events down, 2 to go. Time for another update on the Apex 2015 World Circuit standings as of 1/7/15.

As a reminder to all, the top 16 players in these standings will automatically advance into the final top-48 Melee Singles bracket at Apex 2015, skipping over the first two rounds of pools entirely. This is an amazing benefit and should serve as a great incentive for players to work for Apex points in the final few circuit events.

So who’s gonna make it, and who’s gonna be left out?

Let’s go over the points system first:

Points System

1st = 500 points
2nd = 350 points
3rd = 260 points
4th = 210 points
5th = 160 points
7th = 130 points
9th = 100 points
13th = 80 points
17th = 60 points

Here are the current points accumulated:

Current Standings

Here are the remaining circuit events and my projections for who will get how many points at each of them:

Projected Standings

Here are my predictions for who will make it and who will be left out:

Juggleguy’s Predictions

Analysis:

KirbyKaze and HugS both locked up a spot in the top 16 with their 1st and 2nd place performances at SWEET Prologue last weekend.

Hax had been virtually guaranteed a top 16 spot, but now that he’s announced an indefinite hiatus due to injury, we will remove him from the board assuming he won’t enter Apex.

Based on the projected top player attendance at the remaining two circuit events, I’ve projected that 510 points is still the magic number that gets someone in; and 520+ points would almost certainly be enough. Notice that I listed what each player needs to do to reach 520+ points in the table above.

Very likely:

Mew2King, Hungrybox, Lucky, Westballz, KirbyKaze, HugS, DJ Nintendo, SFAT, and Silent Wolf are all virtually guaranteed a top 16 spot already.

Armada and Wizzrobe are basically shoe-ins, both needing just 17th place or better at Paragon.

Last five in:

Axe, DizzKidBoogie, Duck, Leffen, Shippu. Axe needs just 17th place or better at Paragon to get in, which should be easy for him barring a complete collapse in bracket. DizzKidBoogie also needs just 17th place or better at Paragon to get in, but this might be tough for him considering the 20 or so SSBMRank-level players in attendance. Duck is in a great position to get in with a current total of 520 points, and could only be bumped out if two or more players in the “contenders” category came out of nowhere to place top 6 at Paragon. Leffen still has a good chance to get in, needing to average 3rd at BEAST and Paragon, but considering BEAST features Mango + Armada and Paragon features Armada + Mew2King + Hungrybox, this certainly isn’t a guarantee for him; getting 3rd and 4th would not be good enough. Now here’s where it gets interesting: Shippu is now in a decent position to sneak in with 500 points because of how stacked Paragon attendance has become. With Armada, Mew2King, Hungrybox, Leffen, Axe, Westballz, and Lucky in attendance at Paragon, it will be extremely difficult for contenders such as Colbol, Shroomed, and Zhu to break into the top placings and earn the points they need to get in. Shippu benefits from the fact that so many already-qualified players will take up space in the top placings; if Paragon results reflect SSBMRank accordingly, I’m now projecting that Shippu will get in with 500 points despite my previous projections to the contrary.

First five out:

Mango, Colbol, Shroomed, Zhu, Fiction. Although Mango is now confirmed for BEAST and could very well win it all there, the most he can rack up is 500 points unless he also attends Paragon, which does not seem to be in the cards at the moment. I’m only putting Mango here instead of Shippu because Shippu has already earned the 500 points, while Mango still has to go to Europe and beat Armada and Leffen to get his 500 points. It will be interesting how Apex staff breaks the tie if Mango were to win BEAST. Colbol is in a precarious situation, needing 5th place at Paragon; this is a tall order but very doable for the #10 ranked player in the world. Shroomed and Zhu are both attending Paragon thanks to a last-minute registration, but they will need 7th place and 5th place respectively to get in. Normally this would be no problem for the two West Coast powerhouses, but the Paragon attendance is so strong that I don’t project them to get there. Fiction looks to be out of play for BEAST and Paragon, putting him at 480 points at the end of the circuit.

Still in contention:

MacD, S2J, KoreanDJ, Fly Amanita, Chillindude. MacD needs an amazing performance at Paragon (5th place or better) to get in, which will be nearly impossible with nine better players (according to SSBMRank) in attendance competing against him. S2J will likely be left in the dust at 420 points, a result of him getting owned by OXY_Sung for a paltry 5th place finish at SSS 30. KoreanDJ, Fly Amanita, and Chillindude are all skilled enough to potentially make a run for 5th place at Paragon, and all of them have enough current points that 5th place would push them in, but none have registered for Paragon or expressed interest in attending. PPMD is out of contention, as even a surprise appearance and win at Paragon would only put him at 500 points. Nobody else has a realistic chance based on the current points situation and the skill level required to achieve enough points.

What do you think? Who’s gonna make it, and who’s gonna be left out? Discuss here or in the MIOM Facebook group! And for more information about the remaining Apex world circuit events, visit the Apex website.

MIOM | Juggleguy