Apex 2015 World Circuit Update and Projections (12/22/14)

11 circuit events down, 3 to go. Time for another update on the Apex 2015 World Circuit standings as of 12/22/14.

As a reminder to all, the top 16 players in these standings will automatically advance into the final top-48 Melee Singles bracket at Apex 2015, skipping over the first two rounds of pools entirely. This is an amazing benefit and should serve as a great incentive for players to work for Apex points in the final few circuit events.

So who’s gonna make it, and who’s gonna be left out?

Let’s go over the points system first:

Points System

1st = 500 points
2nd = 350 points
3rd = 260 points
4th = 210 points
5th = 160 points
7th = 130 points
9th = 100 points
13th = 80 points
17th = 60 points

Here are the current points accumulated:

Current Standings

Here are the remaining circuit events and my projections for who will get how many points at each of them:

Projected Standings

Here are my predictions for who will make it and who will be left out:

Predictions

Analysis:

SFAT and Silent Wolf both locked up a spot in the top 16 with solid performances at PNR this past weekend. Mew2King, Hungrybox, Lucky, and Westballz all padded their leads over the rest of the competition and will also be in the top 16.

Based on the projected top player attendance at the remaining circuit events, I’ve projected that 510 points is now the magic number that gets someone in; and 520+ points would almost certainly be enough. Notice that I listed what each player needs to do to reach 520+ points in the table above.

Very likely:

Mew2King, Hungrybox, Lucky, Westballz, Hax, DJ Nintendo, SFAT, and Silent Wolf are all virtually guaranteed a top 16 spot already.

Armada and Wizzrobe are basically shoe-ins as long as they don’t get bopped for lower than 17th at one of the remaining circuit events.

KirbyKaze is likely to get in with 4th place or better at SWEET, which should be no problem considering there are no gods projected to be in attendance.

Last five in:

Leffen, Colbol, Duck, Axe, Shippu. Leffen needs to average 3rd or better at BEAST and Paragon; this is no easy task considering Armada will be at both, and Mew2King and Hungrybox will be at Paragon, but still very doable for a player of Leffen’s caliber. Colbol needs 5th at Paragon, which will be difficult considering the competition, but if his performance matches his SSBMRank placing then he’ll get in. Duck needs 3rd or better at SWEET, which should be manageable against opponents in the KirbyKaze/Frootloop/Drephen/Kalamazhu tier. Axe is on the bubble at 510 points after his stellar 2nd-place performance at Forte 2, but it’s unclear if he will go to any January events to give himself more breathing room. Shippu is also clinging onto a top 16 spot at the moment, but would be the first one bumped out if any contenders below him can surpass 510 points.

First five out:

MacD, Fiction, DizzKidBoogie, HugS, S2J. MacD and HugS are both presumably attending Paragon, but need excellent placings to get in. Fiction and DizzKidBoogie could both get in fairly easily with just one more decent placing, but it’s unclear if either will attend any more events. S2J is on the outside looking in after he got bopped by Sung for a dismal 5th place at SSS 30, but could easily get in if he attended a January event.

Still in contention:

Mango and PPMD are both still sitting at 0 points, but being the world-class players they are, could potentially still get in with a 1st place finish at one of the three remaining events. PPMD almost certainly won’t be attending anything until Apex, but Mango is said to be considering BEAST; if he goes to Europe and wins, he might be able to sneak in at 500 points without attending a second January event. Shroomed, Zhu, KoreanDJ, and Fly Amanita are all in a good position to get in with one more solid placing, but none have confirmed for any January events and it’s unknown whether that will change. Japanese players aMSa, Flash, and Sobameshi will all be left out unless they fly out of Japan to one of the remaining events. Mafia, Gahtzu, Soft, and G$ all need a miraculous placing at an upcoming event (or two decent placings at two events) to get in.

What do you think? Who’s gonna make it, and who’s gonna be left out? Discuss here or in the MIOM Facebook group! And for more information about the remaining Apex world circuit events, visit the Apex website.

MIOM | Juggleguy