Apex 2015 World Circuit Update and Projections

8 circuit events down, 6 to go. It’s mid-December in the Melee season, and time to update everyone on the Apex 2015 World Circuit standings.

As a reminder to all, the top 16 players in these standings will automatically advance into the final top-48 Melee Singles bracket at Apex 2015, skipping over the first two rounds of pools entirely. This is an amazing benefit and should serve as a great incentive for players to work for Apex points in the final few circuit events.

So who’s gonna make it, and who’s gonna be left out?

Let’s go over the points system first:

Points System

1st = 500 points
2nd = 350 points
3rd = 260 points
4th = 210 points
5th = 160 points
7th = 130 points
9th = 100 points
13th = 80 points
17th = 60 points

Here are the current points accumulated:

Current Standings

Here are the remaining circuit events and my projections for who will get how many points at each of them:

Projected Standings

Here are my predictions for who will make it and who will be left out:

Predictions

Analysis:

The fact that three circuit events take place on the same weekend (PNR, Forte 2, SSS 30), and one of the remaining circuit events takes place in Europe (BEAST 5), will effectively prevent any players from attending more than three of the remaining six circuit events. Most notably, this circuit event schedule prevents the top West Coast players from farming too many points going into January.

Based on this information, and the projected top player attendance at the remaining circuit events, I’ve projected that 520 points is the magic number that gets someone in; and 530+ points would almost certainly be enough. Notice that I listed what each player needs to do to reach 530+ points in the table above.

Very likely:

Mew2King, Lucky, Westballz, Hax, and DJ Nintendo are all virtually guaranteed a top 16 spot. Consider their spots to be clinched already.

Armada and Hungrybox are basically shoe-ins as long as they don’t implode for a lower-than-17th placing at one of the remaining circuit events.

Silent Wolf and KirbyKaze are very likely to get in as long as they get 4th place or better at PNR and SWEET respectively, which is very manageable considering there is currently no more than one god confirmed at each of those circuit events.

Wizzrobe is likely as well, needing 9th place or better at Paragon, but it’s not a walk in the park: he has to compete vs projected out-of-region attendance that includes Armada, Leffen, Hungrybox, Mew2King, Lucky, HugS, and MacD; as well as Florida mainstays Plup, Colbol, Porkchops, and Gahtzu.

Leffen is also likely to get in if he finishes top 2 at BEAST and top 4 at Paragon. He could achieve these results by beating every non-god in attendance at both.

Last five in:

Fly Amanita, S2J, SFAT, Duck, and Colbol. Each of these players is in a great position to get in, needing a solid placing at one more circuit event. Looking at the turnout composition at the remaining events, these are all doable. Even if these players fall short of the placing required to reach 520 points, they could all go to an additional event in January and would only need to place 17th or better to get in. Of these five, Colbol has the shakiest outlook due to the extremely difficult opposition at Paragon, and the fact that he wouldn’t have a chance to go to another event if he falls short there.

First five out:

Axe, Shippu, MacD, Shroomed, and HugS. Axe will need to either win Forte 2 outright over Hungrybox, or average 4th place or better at Forte 2 and one of the January events. Shippu is on the outside looking in despite winning the Japan circuit event, as 500 points likely won’t be enough to push him through. MacD and HugS can both get in with excellent placings at two more events, but have their work cut out considering the heavy hitter opponents. Shroomed is also projected to be out unless he attends one of the January events, but if he does that, he’d be quite likely to get in.

Still in contention:

Mango and PPMD are currently sitting at 0 points, but being players of their caliber, both could get in with 2nd place or better at two upcoming events; however, their non-attendance is likely to continue. Fiction and Larry Lurr are still alive but need either a top 2 finish at SSS 30 or additional points at one of the January events. Zhu and KoreanDJ both need just one more solid placing to get enough points, but it’s unclear whether either will attend any more circuit events. Japanese players aMSa, Flash, and Sobameshi are all constrained by their geographic location making it difficult to attend any more events. Mafia, Gahtzu, Soft, DizzKidBoogie, and G$ all need a miraculous placing at an upcoming circuit event (or two decent placings at two events) to get in.

What do you think? Who’s gonna make it, and who’s gonna be left out? Discuss here or in the MIOM Facebook group! And for more information about the remaining Apex world circuit events, visit the Apex website.

MIOM | Juggleguy