The spiritual successor to Do You Fox With It, I’m Not Yelling takes place this weekend, featuring 3 of the “big 6”. This time around, [A]rmada and TSM Leffen from Sweden make their appearances in Northern California, the first time in nearly 5 years.  No longer just commentating, C9.Mango aims to win it all. Even beyond the 3 powerhouses, top-level talent fills the entrants list. KirbyKaze, Frootloop, and Druggedfox are traveling across the country to compete. The usual players from Socal, LuCKy, MacD, HugS, Westballz, and Fly Amanita, want to bring the crown to Socal. And the musketeer trio from Norcal, MIOM|SFAT, PewPewU, and Shroomed, hope to defend their region from the outside invaders. Along with a stacked singles and doubles bracket, there is a special round robin event featuring 8 of the best teams players that will happen on the end of Saturday, so tune in for two full days of action packed Melee.

Logistics

Where: Merritt College, 12500 Campus Dr, Oakland, CA

When:  April 11 – April 12 (All times PST)

Saturday:
10AM Venue Opens
12PM Wave A singles R1
2PM Wave B singles R1
5PM Wave C singles R1
7 PM Doubles bracket to top 4

Sunday:
2PM Singles top 96
5PM Doubles top 4
7PM Singles top 8
11PM Clean Up

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e61XZ6lFNlrO2hUJXZBZ2_xcbxbZZvelKPluiPjCtEo/edit

Streams: Primary: ShowdownSmash, Secondary: Showdowngg

Full Attendees List: Here

The Story

C9. Mango has started off 2015, very cold, going 0-4 against the “big 6”. Who gave him these losses? None other than Armada and Leffen, who will both be in attendance. It seems that Armada’s and Leffen’s level of play have exceeded Mango’s, exposing his weaknesses and making him look quite ordinary. After each European tournament, it seems that both of the their power levels rise, while Mango’s remains stagnant. Yet, Mango has shown time and time again that he has been able to win, even when no believed he could. Will Mango be able to get his revenge or will the Swedes get the best of him for the third consecutive time?

However, this isn’t just a 3 horse-race. Mew2King was upset by Fiction and Silent Wolf at Do You Fox With It, and there are a slew of very hungry players, vying to show that the “big 6” aren’t invincible. Leffen posted on twitter that he was implicitly disappointed in Shroomed/SFAT/PewPewU’s level of play, stating that their play was very “unclean” and “extremely underdeveloped”. However, the Norcal trio made the “gods” bleed before, taking matches and even sets against the “big 6” in 2014-2015.  They have their hands full, but they are willing to step up to the plate.

The very talented region of Socal wants to continue to exert its dominance by taking several top spots of the bracket. Despite having several players in the top 48 bracket at Apex, Mango was the only one to achieve top 12 from Socal. Will their heavy hitters bounce back at this regional?

The TafoStats

Thanks to crowd sourcing on my side site, we’ve collected the fan vote on head-to-head matches and consolidated the information in the table below (as of 4/8/2015).

The fans seem to put the most faith in Armada to win most of his matches, followed by Mango and Leffen. In the next tier, PewPewu, Lucky, and MIOM|SFAT have win percentages in the high 80s. Rounding out the top 10 are Westballz, KirbyKaze, Shroomed, and Fly.

Individual Fan Votes

Armada 60% vs Mango 40%

Mango 67% vs Leffen 33%

Armada 80% vs Leffen 20%

Armada appears to be the fan favorite against the two other “big 6” members. People have faith that Mango will take the next set against Leffen, even though Leffen has won the last two sets.

Tafo Predictions

California regionals have historically created wonky results, making the Tafo-predictions look silly. There are 3 clear favorites and a slew of strong “A” tier players that can make some noise or fall early in bracket, depending on who they play.

1. [A]rmada

It’s too hard to bet against him. He’s won against Leffen and will have an edge against Mango with both his Peach and Fox. If Mango manages to figure out one of Armada’s mains, Armada will always have his other character to fall back on.

2. TSM Leffen

Even when Mango won, the sets have been very close. Leffen neutralizes Mango’s strengths with his strong ability to cancel out Mango’s Falco aggression with timely out-of-shield options. Last time they met, Leffen’s chain grab combos and punish game flustered Mango into playing passively. Ultimately, it’s up to Mango to make the adjustments this time around or risk losing a third consecutive set.

3. C9.Mang0

Although Mango has the potential to get first, he’s acknowledged on his stream that his game play hasn’t been the best. At the same time, it’s hard to really bet on anyone else outside of Leffen/Armada to defeat him. However, I said that about Mew2King last time, and we all saw what happened there.

4. EMG KirbyKaze

At this point, everything is a relative crap-shoot. Yet, I do believe that KirbyKaze is capable of winning against almost everyone that’s attending.

5. MIOM|SFAT

Rule #1: Don’t bid high on SFAT out of region.

Rule #2: Bet high on SFAT in norcal

5. PewPewU

Coming off of a fresh win at NCR, PewPewU looks poised to continue his string of great finishes. He may struggle a bit with the Foxes, as he lost to SFAT and Lucky, at Do You Fox With It. Yet, he continues to improve with each tournament. Hopefully, he polishes his punishment game to put less strain on him winning the neutral.

7. Westballz

He’s the wild card of the tournament who can win sets against Mango and then lose sets against a random player in the same day. It’s tough to ever put money on him, but when he’s having a great day, he can go very far.

7. Shroomed

Always a consistent force, Shroomed amazes me with the way that he can scrap out wins from the jaws of defeat. He’s been struggling among his norcal brethren recently, but his mental game is tough, which is great bonus on the big stage.