The last Apex qualifier came to a close last night and the results left me more confused than ever. Here are some of Tafo’s thoughts as we head into Apex.
1. The hierarchy at the Top.
The era of the “5 gods” has officially passed. In 2009-2012, it would be rare to see a “god” lose, but now it seems to happen at every large tournament. Even if a god lost, it was even rarer to see a non-god outplace a god. In the case of Paragon, Westballz (4th) outplaced Armada (5th). Furthermore, Armada looked rather shaky against Colbol, narrowly scraping by as Colbol foolishly tried to edgeguard Armada. Although Leffen did defeat Armada in the tournament, he also lost to Plup in winner’s.
Even though the gods have lost much more frequently in 2014-2015, there is still a gap between the “big 6” and everyone else. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and say that someone is a “god” just because they win 1 set.
Here’s how I view the Top of Melee
S+ Tier
Mango/PPMD/Armada – All have 60% win rates against the big 6 and still for the most part rarely lose to non-big 6 players
S Tier
Hungrybox/Leffen/M2K – All have roughly 40% win rates against the gods and have 1 very deficient matchup (Hbox vs Mango, Leffen vs M2K, M2K vs Armada). The people in S-Tier also have not won nearly as many majors compared to S+. They are stepping up and a clear gap over the next tier. Still, there is great separation between S and S+ if you look at the overall numbers.
A+
Westballz/Hax/Axe/Plup
2. Plup is good.
Beats Leffen. Gets 9th at almost every super national. Plays Samus. Yea… That’s impressive.
3. Mew2King’s Marth/Sheik are good. His Fox….
Despite rarely playing Melee, Mew2King has the Marth punishment game down to a “t”. His raw fundamentals still overcome the majority of the field. With that being said, his Fox could use some work…
4. Leffen belongs in the “Top 6”, but still has holes.
Anyone that says Leffen doesn’t belong in the upper echelon is silly. Yet, he still has question marks going to Apex. He lost to SFAT in two money matches and to Plup winner’s. Although it remains a good bet to say Leffen will finish in the Top 5 at Apex, it’s not guaranteed.
5. The Florida Homecooking
Over the weekend, we saw Colbol > SFAT, Plup > Westballz (in winners) and Leffen , Hungrybox > Armada and M2K. The Florida natives played very well and defended their turf amazingly in both singles and doubles.
6. The end of Armada/M2K in Doubles
It’s clear that Mew2King was shaking off rust with his lackluster performance in doubles at Paragon. It’s also clear that Armada was more used to Android’s Sheik, who plays much more aggressively than M2K. A lack of synergy and, in general, poor play led them to lose for the first time since they played PPMD/Mango at a previous regional.
This was also the first time that ArM2K didn’t finish first at a tournament. With Armada having a strong preference to team with Android, this may be the end of one of the most dominant doubles teams that we have seen in melee history.
7. Doubles is fun to watch
It’s hard not to love teams at the top level. It’s arguably more fun to watch than singles when played well. Shroomed and SFAT showed amazing team synergy to beat ArM2K and almost beat Hungrybox/Plup in their sets. Even though Hbox and Plup don’t play fast characters, they still make it work with their amazing zoning and ability to see two steps ahead of everyone else. Pay attention to where Hbox and Plup position themselves to secure hits or cover their partner’s deficiencies. I wish doubles garnered more attention because it has another layer of depth that’s not seen in singles.
8. 20xx is the same as it has always been
People panicked over the saturation of Fox players after Do You Fox With It and The Big House 4. At Paragon, we saw ~ 2 Fox players in the Top 8 (I’m going to give +0.5 for Armada and Mew2King). Among the Top 8, we saw a Pikachu, Sheik, Marth, Peach, Jigglypuff, and Falco. Don’t worry, the meta is fine.
9. Armada’s Fox??
People forget that Armada’s Fox beat Leffen in a set 3-0 earlier in 2014. He has the fundamentals of a top player, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he can take games against Hungrybox or Leffen, even though no one expected the trenching on Leffen in g3 and g4. It seems to be a viable option for him at future tournaments when he has to play against Hungrybox or a defensive Fox.
10. Axe’s Falco
Someone please put an electric shocker on Axe if he every thinks about going anything other than Pikachu in a tournament match. His Pikachu is leagues better than his others. His other characters (Fox, Falco, Young Link) are impressive, but they are in no way ready to face a player such as Mew2King.
It remains to be seen if Armada has found his own deficient match up in HBox.
Loved the quick thoughts instead of the usual bigger and more concise articles. Diversity is good. Loooking forward to more of this style, maybe even from other authors.
Why isn’t Lucky in A+? It seems like he beats Westballz more often than the reverse.
A couple of issues…
1. Westballz and Plup had an amazing tournament at Paragon. Don’t get me wrong, they are fantastic players but both of them are prone to an inconsistency that you don’t see with Axe and Hax (with his hand in good condition). Just because both of them had an amazing tournament doesn’t mean they are just under god level, or any stronger than players such as Lucky, Colbol or SW, all of which are amazing but inconsistent players.
2. Nobody can accurately place PPMD right now, at the start of the year he was on the level of Mango and Armada but has been inactive for half a year. Normally that wouldn’t be a huge deal but with the jump in overall skill level we’ve seen in 2014 I would have my doubts that an out of practice PPMD is still a top competitor. Of course he has been doing his homework and practicing but at the end of the day he has been absent from top level play for half a year.
3. Everything is changing so fast, Leffen’s run at B.E.A.S.T., Plup beating Leffen in Paragon,Lucky’s Run at Big House 4. The skill gap is shrinking fast and it’s becoming more and more difficult to accurately predict tournament outcomes. This is exciting but the whole concept of player tiers in my eyes is deteriorating. Certain players and characters have advantages of course have an advantage on other but this idea of set tiers of players needs to go. I for one expect big upsets regularly in 2015.
1. Westballz has actually done quite well if you look at his overall 2014 performance. I also don’t see how you can make the claim that Plup is inconsistent when he has played 9th at 4 super nationals. What gives you the notion that Plup isn’t consistent?
2. I’ll have to disagree with you here. PPMD wasn’t on the same tier as the people below him when he left and rarely lost to people that were ranked lower than 6th. It’d take a lot from that tier of players to catch up.
3. I’ll agree with you to a loose extent. I’m not saying that a tier is invincible to the tier below them, but if you had Armada and Hax play 10 times, who’s winning the majority? Sure, Hax could win 1/2 sets out of 10, but that still indicates a clear separation between players. Just as I’m able to beat players such as s2j and westballz from time to time, I’m not putting myself in the same level of skill as them.
I just think that after the top 6 the tiers become extremely muddied with a decently sized (10-15 or so) number of people who are able to take games off each other on any given day which makes ranking them against each other seem futile. I do apologize with the claim to Plup and Westballz being inconsistent. Both regularly place well but neither regularly take out gods the way that they did at Paragon… I by no means think they are bad players and have the utmost respect for both of them, my point is more that I think Hax and Axe are viewed to have played poorly by many when they don’t make top 8 and that sentiment doesn’t hold for too many others (besides the top 6 of course). I don’t think Westballz or Plup have a significant advantage over any of the 10-15 players ranked under the ‘gods’.
I still have my doubts about PPMD and from some of the things he’s been saying he has some doubts about his own play. I will have to wait and see with regard to this though.
I do apologize if I came off as disrespectful, you clearly know a great deal more about smash than me and I would never insinuate otherwise I just felt as though the inclusion of Plup and Westballz in tier A spoke more to recent performances than general skill level or even results against the 10-15 players under the top 6. If you have information to prove me wrong though I will not argue, I would personally find it near impossible to rank players after the top 6 so props to you for even attempting it.