by MIOM|Tafokints

Not too long ago at CEO 2014, the Project M Top 8 took much longer than expected, causing half of the Melee Top 8 to be played off stream. This angered many fans.  In total, the Project M Top 8 lasted 3 hrs 0 mins 33 sec (Source: Twitch Archives), one hour past the allotted time. Normally FGC tourneys only allow for two hours for each game’s Top 8. Some cited that Project M went too long because of the hand warmers and extended coaching between the matches. I decided to do some research to see what the root cause was.

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CEO Statistics
# of Top 8 Matches 30 sets
Average Match Length 3m 57s
Total GamePlay Time 1hr 58m 5s
Total Non-GamePlay Time 1hr 2m 28s

Table 1: PM Tournament Gameplay Statistics for CEO 2014

The gameplay itself (total match time) was almost 2 hours alone, and the non-gameplay portion was 1 hr and 2 mins. Everyone will agree that 1 hour of downtime for a 3 hour block is unacceptable. Much can be attributed to the excessive coaching that occurred. Yet, even if there were minimal hand warmers, transitions, delays, or coaching, Project M would have still finished late. Fortunately, many of the sets at CEO ended up finishing 2-0, reducing the number of required matches for each set. However, other tournaments may not be so fortunate, and the time taken to finish a tournament varies significantly.

PM Top 8 Matches Time Per Match Total Gameplay Time
Max (Worst Case) 41 matches 4 minutes 2 hr 44 mins
Min (Best Case) 21 matches 4 minutes 1 hr 24 mins

Table 2: Best and Worst Case Scenarios for a Top 8 PM Tournament w/ 4 stocks

Each game of PM during CEO 2014 Top 8 took roughly 4 minutes. Assuming this average throughout, a PM tournament’s Top 8 could potentially take 2 hrs and 45 minutes in gameplay alone if every set goes to the last match and there is a bracket reset in grand finals. That’s just in terms of  gameplay time and does not even account for the downtime in between matches. This will not be acceptable at any FGC events.

With that being said, what should the community do?

In the case of a PM or Smash-only event with no time restrictions, a top 8 bracket with best-of-five sets along with 4 stock matches should be perfectly fine. But for a multi-event or cross-FGC tournament, Project M will not have the time luxury to do this. Although we can put restrictions on time spent coaching or doing hand-warmers, there will still be plenty of downtime regardless. Gameplay time is what needs to be cut down, and PM likely needs to reduce the number of stocks to co-exist with other communities.

Tafo’s Rationale

The goal of a tournament is to determine who the best player is. As a rule of thumb, I would say that most people feel comfortable with the idea of 4 stock matches achieving this goal. This, along with best-of-five sets, creates a stable environment in which skill ultimately determines the winner. Will reducing the stock count to 3 instead of 4 add too much “randomness”? Is there enough interaction between the players to determine the better player? Let’s look at another statistic.

The player who took their opponent’s 3rd stock first ended up winning 25/30 (83%) of the matches at CEO 2014
-TafoStats

Although the idea of comebacks are fascinating, this only occurred in 5 games out of the entire Top 8 at CEO 2014. Even then, the matches were really close in the final two stocks that to quote Ken, “it could have gone either way.” Only 1 match featured a significant 1 stock comeback, which makes me think that 3 stocks is enough of an indicator to determine who the better player is.

The Benefits of 3 Stock matches

 PM Top 8 Matches Time Per Match Total Gameplay Time
Max (Worst Case) 41 matches 3 minutes 2 hr 3 mins
Min (Best Case) 21 matches 3 minutes 1 hr 3 mins

Table 2: Best and Worst Case Scenarios for a Top 8 PM Tournament w/ 3 stocks

In a worst case scenario for 3 stock matches, a PM Top 8 will require a shade over 2 hours of actual gameplay time. If we assume less than 30 minutes of downtime at a well-run tournament, PM will finish in a respectable amount of time. Realistically, this will allow for PM tournaments to finish within 1.5-2.3 hours for normal tournaments.

Closing Thoughts

In an age where multi-event tournaments are prominent, tournament organizers cannot allow Top 8 Finals to take too long; too much is at risk with stream considerations and sponsorship stakeholders in other games. PM gameplay appears to have enough interactions per stock such that 3-stock matches will determine the better player, while finishing in a reasonable amount of time.